Outlook 06/27



Context: Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak about global economic issues at London's Royal Academy at 1 p.m. ET. Her comments, and replies to the audience, will be monitored closely for any new insight on monetary policy and the unwinding of the Fed's massive balance sheet. Besides Yellen, a pair of Fed policymakers are due to make public appearances: Patrick Harker and Neel Kashkari.

The euro jumped above $1.1250, its highest level in nearly two weeks, after Mario Draghi signaled growing confidence in the eurozone recovery. "The threat of deflation is gone and reflationary forces are at play," he said at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal. Central bank support will still need to "remain in place," however, as a rise in inflationary pressures is "not yet durable and self-sustaining."

Plan: Yesterday closed bimodal and overnight shows balanced. Volume is bearish so first idea is to be a seller around yesterday VAL 2435 towards lower edge of current range LVN 2419. If market fails at ONL 2430, I become a buyer towards yesterday POC 2438.50 and VAH 2441.

References /ESU7: VAH 2441 POC 2438.50 VAL 2435.

Today's Economic Calendar

8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:15 Fed's Harker: Economic Outlook
1:00 PM Janet Yellen speech
1:00 PM 5-Year Note Auction

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