Outlook 07/05

Context: Minutes from the Fed's June monetary policy meeting will be released this afternoon after the central bank mapped out plans to reduce its $4.5T balance sheet. One key detail was left out: Will it begin the asset reduction before another rate hike? Investors have also been focused on global central bank signals in recent sessions amid signs officials might be ready to ease off massive stimulus programs.

The U.S. has confirmed that North Korea's latest launch was indeed an intercontinental ballistic missile, calling it a "new escalation of threat," as Pyongyang vowed to keep sending Washington more "gift packages." Calling for global action, the U.S. has requested an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council, while South Korea seeks fresh sanctions on the isolated regime.

/ES Plan: After 4th July holiday, the /ES overnight profile is balanced. We are opening below Monday's value and volume is slight bullish, so first idea is to wait and see if market can push through Monday VAL 2429 looking for POC-VAH 2434-36.50 If market fails at 2429, I become a seller towards ONL 2421-2420.

Value References /ES: VAH 2436.50 POC 2434 VAL 2429

Today's Economic Calendar

8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 Factory Orders
2:00 PM FOMC minutes
2:00 PM Gallup US ECI

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