Outlook 07/06

Context: Yesterday's Fed minutes revealed a split among policymakers on the timing of balance sheet normalization, while suggesting the bank plans to maintain gradual rate hikes.

ECB policymakers last month discussed dropping the bank's longstanding pledge to increase/extend QE. The news is adding to pressure on European indexes (now down more than 1%), and sending the euro and EU bond yields higher.

Plan: Globex overnight profile is bearish. We are opening below yesterday's value and volume is bearish, so first idea is to be a seller around ON/LVN/MID/YVAL 2422-2425 area towards lower edge of major range 2406. If selling fails at YVAL 2425-26, I become a buyer towards YPOC 2429.25 and YVAH 2431.25

Tips: Follow peaks (HVNs) and valleys (LVNs) on volume profile to figure out acceptance or rejection levels. When market breaks HOD or LOD, we've to see acceptance (HVNs) above/below the breakout level.

Value Levels /ES: VAH 2431.25 POC 2429.25 VAL 2425.75

Today's Economic Calendar

10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
4:30 Money Supply
4:30 Fed Balance Sheet

Disclaimer: All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.

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