Outlook 07/13



Context: Markets across the globe are flashing green, following another record U.S. market close driven by dovish comments from Janet Yellen. In yesterday's testimony, she signaled that the Fed will approach tightening cautiously, given the uncertain inflation outlook. Traders are focusing on another opening statement line in which Yellen said the Fed Funds rate doesn't have much farther to go before reaching a neutral policy stance. Today, Yellen will deliver her second day of semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

Plan: We are moving around edge CVAH 2445 and volume profile shows bimodal imbalance towards LVN 2437, so we've 2 options:

A) If market fails testing ONH 2446.50, then try to become a seller leaning on edge 2445 towards LVN 2437. If 2437 fails, stay short towards half gap 2430 and full gap 2425.50-2424.75

B) If market push above ONH 2446.50, then try to be a buyer leaning on 2445 towards ATH 2451.50 and YBT 2457.

Tips: Today's is an 'After Trend Day' and this type of days offer more chances to play, but probably we've to wait and see reaction ahead Yellen's testimony. After Trend Days generally fill previous days gap.

Value references /ES: VAH 2442.25 POC 2441.25 VAL 2438.75

Today's Economic Calendar

08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Producer Price Index
09:30 AM Yellen testimony
09:45 AM Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
01:00 PM 30-Year Note Auction
01:00 PM Fed's Lael Brainard
02:00 PM Treasury Budget
04:30 PM Money Supply
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.

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