Outlook 07/14



Context: It's a big day for economic data. The latest CPI figures are coming out, as well as the newest reading on retail sales. Both are forecast to pop into positive territory for June after negative figures in May. Investors also expect a boost to industrial production numbers and are looking ahead to data on consumer sentiment and business inventories. Three of the four biggest U.S. banks: JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will kick off earnings season this morning.

Plan: Yesterday closed bullish. We are moving within yesterday's value. Globex profile is slight balanced (2441), so we've 3 options:

A) If market push below VAL 2443.25 and shows a bearish 'b' shape, try to become a seller leaning on any edge (LVNs) towards half gap 2430 and full gap 2425.50-2424.75
B) If market push above VAH 2446.25 and shows a bullih 'p' shape, then try to be a buyer leaning on edge (LVNs) towards ATH 2451.50 YBT 2452.
C) If market shows a balanced D profile, fade the extremes of the range VAH 2446.25 and VAL 2443.25 back to value (POC)

Tips: Volume will be key today. We're at the top of the range and market will be tricky till balance breaks one way or the other. Try to jump on board only when imbalance becomes clear and volume at price shows decent peaks (HVNs) above or below this range. Volume at price is like going up or down a ladder, you just stand on your feet with confidence if you see and feel every step.

Value references /ES: VAH 2446.25 POC 2445.75 VAL 2443.25

Today's Economic Calendar

08:30 Consumer Price Index
08:30 Retail Sales
09:15 Industrial Production
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
13:00 Baker-Hughes Rig Count



Update before the opening bell: We are moving above yesterday's value around edge CVAH 2447. Globex profile is bullish ´p´shape towards 2449.25 (GBT), so try to be a buyer leaning on edge (LVNs) towards ATH 2451.50 YBT 2452. Then when market shows a balanced 'D' profile, fade the extremes of the range (VAH) back to value (POC).

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.

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