Outlook 07/17




Context: The week started with Sunday's China GDP, matching the 6.9% growth rate in Q1. Consumer spending, factory output and investment were all strong, while retail sales recorded their fastest expansion since December 2015. Local markets stayed in the red, however, weighed down as a major once-in-five-years government work meeting indicated Beijing was looking to increase control over the economy.

/ES Plan: Friday's new all time high on low volume and finally closed bimodal. Globex profile is slight bullish (2460). Current auction range from 6/29 CLVN 2402 and CHVN 2430 has been balanced so probably, it's time to 'Back to Value' game. We are moving within yesterday's value, so first idea is to wait and see for signals of whether we'll continue up or fall back into the range.

Globex is slight bullish towards VAH 2461. If market holds LVN 2456, try to buy towards VAH 2461. If market push above VAH 2461 we could see a new excess high towards YBT 2471. If market fails at LVN 2456 or 2461, I expect some decent pullback towards edge VAL 2449 and key level 2447. If edge 2447 fails, 'Back to Value' game starts leaning on that edge, towards half gap 2430.

Tip: We're at the top of the range, without any reference higher. It's time to wait and see, all options are on the table and having a hard bias never help. Patience is key, wait for signals of whether we'll continue up or fall back into the range and play accordingly.

Value references /ES: VAH 2461 POC 2456.50 VAL 2449.50

Today's Economic Calendar

08:30 Empire State Mfg Survey

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.

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