Outlook 07/20



Context: Markets are turning their attention to today's ECB policy meeting, which will be the first since Mario Draghi's hawkish comments in Sintra, Portugal. Financial markets have been hypersensitive in recent weeks to anything that he has said about winding down central bank stimulus. Any statements that change expectations about the ECB's plans could have a violent effect on bond prices and currency rates.

/ES Plan: Yesterday closed balanced leaving new all time high. Globex profile is slight bullish printing new highs and we know that overnight new highs have big chances to be tested at regular trading hours. We're moving above yesterday's value so we've 2 options:

A) If market holds above VAH 2471 we could see a new excess high towards GBT 2476 and YBT 2483, so try to be buyer and scale into a position on the long side off any step of the ladder.

B) If market fails at VAH 2471, expect some decent pullback towards LVN 2468 and VAL 2464.50. If VAL fails, next references will be the edge 2461 and 2458,25 yesterday's gap.

Tip: We're at the top of the range, without any reference higher. It's time to wait and see, all options are on the table and having a hard bias never help. Patience is key, wait for signals of whether we'll continue up or fall back into the range and play accordingly.

Value references /ES: VAH 2471 POC 2470.50 VAL 2464.50

Today's Economic Calendar

08:30 AM ECB Draghi Press Conference
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Philly Fed Business Outlook
09:45 AM Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.

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