Outlook 07/24

Context: European markets are lower as the euro hits a 23-month high. U.S. Dollar Index dropped 1.4% last week and is down 1.7% this month after touching its lowest level in more than a year. Earnings are on tap this week from the top internet companies, with Google parent Alphabet (GOOG) up today after the close, followed by Facebook (FB) on Wednesday, and Amazon (AMZN) and Twitter (TWTR) on Thursday.

/ES Value: VAH 2469.50 POC 2465.50 VAL 2465

/ES Plan: Market closed bearish on Friday (YBT 2456) so we could see a decent pullback within lower gap zone. Globex is bearish (GBT 2461) and we're moving within Friday's value so we've 2 options:

A) If market holds above VAL 2465 and push above ON VAH 2467.50, we could see the re-test high towards ONH 2470 GAP 2471 and ON-ATH 2476.25, so try to be buyer and scale into a position on the long side off any step of the ladder. Market printed new highs Thursday's overnight, and stats say overnight new highs have big chances to be tested at regular trading hours.

B) If market fails testing ON VAH 2467.50 and VAL 2465, expect some decent pullback towards CLVN 2462. If that fails, next references will be the GAP 2458.25 YBT 2456 and CLVN 2452. Volume is low after the break of 2450 and moves are fairly weak. No relevant news, waiting FOMC, so odds for a range day after initial balance (1st hour).

Tips: The price levels that offer the trader an advantage come from the market structure: low volume numbers (LVNs), overnight highs/lows (ONH-ONL), 1st standard deviations (VAH/VAL), high volume numbers (HVN/POC/VWAP), and magnets (GAP/VPOC).

Today's Economic Calendar

09:45 AM PMI Composite Flash
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
07:50 PM BoJ Meeting Minutes

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. Full Disclaimer

Subscribe to receive early outlook and updates by email