Outlook 08/04



Context: The non-farm payrolls report this morning shows 209,000 additions to the workforce, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3%, while the unemployment rate edge down to 4.3%. June's 222,000 gain revised to 231,000. U.S. employers maintained a strong pace of hiring in July while raising wages for workers, signs that could clear the way for the Fed to start shrinking its massive bond portfolio.

/ES Value: YVAH 2472 YPOC 2469.50 YVAL 2469

/ES Plan: Yesterday left a balanced profile. We're moving above Yesterday's range/value. Market continues to balance at highs and there is little to no indication of any strong sellers present. Overnight profile shows a bullish imbalance towards GBT 2482, so primary idea is still buying weakness:

A) If market holds above yesterday value 2470-69 (GAP), it is a clearly bullish signal, so try to be buyer and scale into the long side towards ONH, ATH 2480.50 and GBT 2482. If market shows 'one tick failure' at ONH or ATH, it's a signal of rejection, so try to sell failure.

B) If market begins to trade below YVAL 2469 and volume increases at lows, try to be a seller towards CLVN 2462. If market shows balance at this level, try to be a buyer into 'Back to value' game.

Tips: Watching at the bigger picture, last All Time High (ATH) 2480.50 has a lack of decent excess on it. Usually, market needs an excess high that would indicate the end to the current auction. Excess means single prints at daily profile or a big tail on candlestick charts.

Today's Economic Calendar

01:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

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