Shutdown Risk

Outlook 01/18: U.S. government shutdown could interrupt this market's rally. President Trump aligned himself with conservative Republicans, calling a proposed bipartisan deal on border security "horrible" and "very, very weak" on immigration reforms. According to statistics, markets have shown modest weakness during shutdowns, with the SP 500 falling an average of 0.6% over the period of the closure.

/ES Value: YVAH 2809 YPOC 2804 YVAL 2787

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed leaving a bullish profile (PBT 2828). Overnight inventory is balanced moving within yesterday's value, so as usual we've these options:

A) If market remains above LVN 2798 with bullish internals, try to be a buyer leaning on 2798-2800 towards ONH 2808 and ATH 2809.50 Failure to take out ONH 2808 early is a signal of weakness.

B) If market starts to move below LVN 2798 with bearish internals, try to be a seller leaning on 2798-2797 towards LVN 2790 and YVAL 2787. Failure to breakdown LVN 2798 early is a signal of a strength.

Tips: Remember, stick to a trading plan and a systematic process, don't try to seek perfection. Use buy/sell range zones, not absolute levels. Take trades according to your risk, your goal is to come back next day.

Today's Economic Calendar

09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
04:30 PM Money Supply
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
06:05 PM Fed's Mester

Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.

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