Outlook 03/21: Today is all about the Federal Reserve. At 2:00 p.m. ET, the U.S. central bank will release its latest monetary policy decision. Markets expect the Fed to raise the target range for its benchmark Federal Funds rate by 0.25% to 1.5%-1.75%. This would be the highest benchmark rate since the financial crisis and be the highest Fed Funds rate since September 2008.
/ESM8 Value: YVAH 2725 YPOC 2720 YVAL 2718
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced but overnight is bearish (GBT 2715) moving within Yesterday's value, so today's options are:
A) If market remains below YVAH 2725 with bearish internals, become a seller leaning on 2725-2722 towards ONL 2717.25 LVN 2711 and Edge 2700. 'Look above and fail' is a signal of weakness.
B) If market starts to move above YVAH 2725 with bullish internals, try to be a buyer leaning on 2725-2724 towards ONH 2727.75 and LVN 2731. 'Look below and fail' is a signal of strength.
Tips: FOMC days are unique events that call for increased attention and a shift in tactics. It’s best to treat FOMC days as two separate sessions. The time before the announcement, which tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity, which gives way to a sudden burst of volatility that continues into the close. Trade setups that work well in the morning session may fail completely in the afternoon session, resulting in significant losses. Here is a simple FOMC strategy.
Today's Economic Calendar
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
02:00 PM FOMC Announcement
02:00 PM FOMC Forecast
02:00 PM Chairman Press Conference
Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.
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