Outlook 03/09: February jobs report is out and it’s a huge beat. In February, NFP grew by 313k and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last three months, job gains have now averaged 242k per month. February’s payrolls gain was the largest since July 2016. Economists had expected the report to show NFP grew by 205k during the second month of the year with the unemployment rate falling to 4%. February marks the fifth-straight month the unemployment rate has been at 4.1%, which is the lowest level since December 2000.
/ES Value: YVAH 2735 YPOC 2729 YVAL 2725
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed leaving a balanced profile. Overnight inventory is bimodal (LIS 2747) moving above yesterday's value. Jobs report is a news driven event so SoC setup (2748) comes into play. As usual we've these options:
A) If market remains above LIS 2747 with bullish internals, try to be a buyer leaning on 2747-49 towards ONH 2764 and LVN 2790. 'Look above and fail' is a signal of weakness.
B) If market starts to move below LIS 2747 with bearish internals, try to be a seller leaning on 2747-45 towards ONL 2735 and LVN 2720. 'Look below and fail' is a signal of strength.
Tips: Pace of the Roll now is around 50%. I start quoting new contract /ESM8. Rollover and NFP are enough reasons to be very cautious today. Usual strategies are most likely to be less effective in these conditions.
Today's Economic Calendar
10:00 AM Wholesale Trade
10:45 PM Fed's Evans speech
12:45 PM Fed's Evans speech
01:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.
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