CPI data

Outlook 09/13: U.S. stock futures ticked lower Wednesday morning as traders absorbed hotter-than-expected August core inflation data. August consumer price index rose 0.6% for the month, and was up 3.7% from a year ago. Economists were looking for respective increases of 0.6% and 3.6%. However, excluding volatile food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% and 4.3% respectively, against estimates for 0.2% and 4.3%. Federal Reserve officials focus more on the core number as it provides a better indication of where inflation is heading over the long term. Fed funds futures pricing data as of Wednesday morning indicate a 93% probability of rates remaining the same

/ESZ23 (Dec 2023): YVAH 4533 YPOC 4528 YVAL 4516 GAP 4515

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, but after CPI data, overnight looks more balanced, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above YVAL 4516 with bullish internals, buy towards HVE 4522 YPOC 4528 YVAH 4533 and YHOD 4539.

B) If market moves below YVAL 4516 with bearish internals, sell towards HVE 4511 YLOD 4507 HVE 4500 and HVE-ONL 4495.

Note: If market opens below value and it begins to trade within value, Value Area Rule VAR comes into play. 

REMINDER: We're in rollover week. I'm quoting /ESZ23 volume cos is more relevant than September contract. Pace of the Roll 70%. Usually rollover days show big divergences between Stocks vs. Futures, so try to play these days on defensive mode. 

Market Movers

10:00 Atlanta Fed's Expectations

10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

1:00 PM 30-Year Bond Auction

2:00 PM Treasury Statement 

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