Futures Trading: Rollover week

Outlook 09/11: U.S. stock futures are higher Monday morning as all three indexes are coming off a losing week. Investors will be watching for key inflation data this week after several economic reports last week were stronger than expected, increasing concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates more than previously anticipated. But the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that Fed members reached a consensus not to raise rates too much when the central bank meets next week. Futures now put the chance of the Fed holding rates steady at the Sept. 20 meeting at 93%. Economists are revising their calls for a U.S. recession, including Goldman Sachs. "With the Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle likely concluded and the disinflationary trend intact, a soft landing is looking more probable with each passing month".

/ESU23 (Sep 2023): YVAH 4470 YPOC 4465 YVAL 4455 GAP 4465

/ES Plan: Last session market closed bullish (PBT 4488), and overnight continues on that way (PBT 4497), moving above previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market remains above HVE 4485 with bullish internals, buy towards ONH 4489 PBT 4497 and HVEs 4500-4511.

B) If market moves below HVE 4485 with bearish internals, sell towards YHOD-HVE 4477 YVAH 4470 and GAP 4465.

Note: It's Monday and Mondays are usually the quietest days of the week. Many traders want to take their time analyzing the market, and usually, there are few economic releases. Market opens above value and if it begins to trade within value, Value Area Rule VAR comes into play.

REMINDER: We're in rollover week. I'm still quoting /ESU23 until /ESZ23 volume is more relevant than September contract. Pace of the Roll 50%. Usually rollover days show big divergences between Stocks vs. Futures, so try to play these days on defensive mode. Setups that usually work well, may fail completely.

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Rollover week