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FOMC day

Outlook 07/30: Stock futures are little changed as traders digest strong GDP report, await Fed decision. A stronger-than-expected reading of U.S. gross domestic product did little to shift investor attention away from interest rates and rolling corporate earnings. The U.S. economy grew at a 3% clip in the second quarter, while economists were looking for 2.3% in the April-through-June stretch. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement Wednesday afternoon. Fed funds futures are pricing in a nearly 98% likelihood of the central bank keeping its key rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Following the decision, traders will turn to a press conference with Powell for insights into the path of monetary policy. This comes as President Trump and allies have tried to pressure the central bank leader to bring the borrowing cost down.

ESU25 (SEP2025): YVAH 6425 YPOC 6407 YVAL 6400 GAP 6404

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish (PBT 6375), but overnight looks balanced, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above YPOC 6407 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards YVAH 6425 HVE 6433 YHOD 6443 and ON-ATH 6457 magnet.

B) If market moves below YPOC 6407 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards YVAL 6400 PBTs 6390-6373 magnets and GAP 6345 magnet.

Note: Remember that new record high has been printed overnight, so it's still pending to be revisited at regular hours. Keep in mind that FOMC days are two separate sessions. The AM session tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity. Trade setups that work well in the AM, may fail completely in the afternoon, resulting in significant losses. Today is NOT the day to trade aggressively.

Market Movers

10:00 ET US Pending Home Sales 
10:30 ET US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 ET US Interest Rate FOMC Decision 
14:30 ET FOMC Powell Press Conference
16:00 ET Qualcomm Q3 2025 Earnings
16:05 ET Microsoft Q4 2025 Earnings
16:05 ET Meta Q2 2025 Earnings
16:05 ET Ford Q2 2025 Earnings
16:05 ET Ebay Q2 2025 Earnings

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