Outlook 03/17: U.S. stock futures point to lower open as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to a new 13-month high ahead of the Federal Reserve's post-meeting release of new economic and interest rate projections and Chairman Jerome Powell's news conference. As bond yields rise on concerns about inflation, Powell needs to convince traders that easy current Fed monetary measures won't overheat a recovering economy that just got another Covid stimulus boost. The Fed concludes its two-day March meeting Wednesday afternoon, with no one expecting any change in policy.
/ESM21 (June Contract): YVAH 3967 YPOC 3963 YVAL 3954 GAP 3957.50
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, but overnight looks bearish, moving a below yesterday's range, so these are the initial balance options for today:
A) If market moves above LIS HVE 3936 with bullish internals, buy towards GAP 3957.50 and ONH 3960.
B) If market remains below LIS HVE 3936 with bearish internals, sell towards ONL 3935 and HVE 3913.
Note1: Overnight inventory is 100% bearish. The expected action is a counter-auction relative to overnight inventory; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of a potential trend day.
Note2:
FOMC days are two separate sessions. The AM session tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity. Trade setups that work well in the AM, may fail completely in the afternoon, resulting in significant losses. Today is NOT the day to trade aggressively.
Market Movers
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:30 PM Powell Press Conference
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