Higher for longer

Outlook 09/22: U.S. stock futures rise slightly Friday, but the market is still poised to end the week with steep losses. The SP500 is down 2.7% this week, on track for their worst weekly performance since March. It would also be their third negative week in a row. Bond yields surged after the central bank forecast one more rate hike for 2023. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield popped 15 basis point to hit a high of 4.498%, its highest level since 2007. Risk-off resumed as markets grappled with the ‘higher for longer’ signal. The weak close opens the door to more losses into month-end, especially with a potential government shutdown ahead during a period of the year that is seasonally the most volatile for risk assets. 

/ESZ23 (Dec 2023): YVAH 4419 YPOC 4404 YVAL 4385 GAP 4370

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, but overnight looks slight bullish, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above HVE-YVAL 4385 with bullish internals, buy towards HVE 4406 YVAH 4419 HVEs 4425-4432 and GAP 4445.

B) If market moves below HVE-YVAL 4385 with bearish internals, sell towards ONL-YLOD 4366 HVEs 4364-4345 and HVE-PBT 4330. 

Note: FOMC day always offer an overreaction, Yesterday was the real reaction to FOMC news, and Today is when we have confirmation of the next trend. It's Friday and traders who have made losses that week will likely take large risks to try and end the week with a profit. Try to be calm and focus on the market rather than thinking about your account.

Market Movers

9:45 PMI Composite Flash

1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count

1:00 PM Fed's Daly Speech 

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