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Outlook 09/25: U.S. stock futures fell Monday with the market set to kick off the final week of trading in September with big losses. Stocks markets have struggled this month as the Federal Reserve signaled higher interest rates for longer, sending bond yields rising. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has surged more than 30 basis points this month to 4.43%. The move in rates has proven to be too much too fast for equity markets to handle. The market also contended with a rally in crude oil and a winning streak in the dollar during the seasonally weak trading month. Investors are also closely monitoring progress on a budget resolution in Washington. Lawmakers over the weekend expressed few signs of movement on a deal that would keep the U.S. government funded for the remainder of the fiscal year.

/ESZ23 (Dec 2023): YVAH 4395 YPOC 4382 YVAL 4373 GAP 4365

/ES Plan: Last Friday market closed bearish, and Sunday's reopening continues on that way (PBT 4323), moving below previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above HVE 4345 with bullish internals, buy towards HVE 4357 GAP 4365 YVAL 4373 and ONH 4379.

B) If market moves below HVE 4345 with bearish internals, sell towards HVE-PBT 4330 PBT 4323 and HVEs 4314-4306. 

Note: If market opens below value and it begins to trade within value, Value Area Rule VAR comes into play.

Market Movers

10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 

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