Monday reprieve

Outlook 09/26: U.S. stock futures fell Tuesday with the market set to kick off the final week of trading in September with big losses. Stocks markets have struggled this month as the Federal Reserve signaled higher interest rates for longer, sending bond yields rising. Among the catalysts pushing stocks lower this month is the Federal Reserve warning that it sees fewer rate cuts next year. The news pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to levels not seen since 2007. Investors this week are also grappling with negotiations in Washington, as lawmakers hope to avert a government shutdown that could take place as early as Oct. 1 if Congress doesn’t agree on a spending bill.

/ESZ23 (Dec 2023): YVAH 4375 YPOC 4371 YVAL 4354 GAP 4380

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 4403), but overnight resumes bearish trend, moving below previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above YVAL 4354 with bullish internals, buy towards YVAH 4375 GAP 4380 ONH 4382 YHOD 4383 and HVE 4385..

B) If market moves below YVAL 4354 with bearish internals, sell towards HVE 4345 ONL 4344 YLOD 4338 and HVE-PBT 4330. 

Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bearish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential trend day. Market opens below value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play.

Market Movers

10:00 Consumer Confidence

10:00 New Home Sales

10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

1:00 PM 2-Year Note Auction

1:00 PM Money Supply

1:30 PM Fed's Bowman's speech 

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