Oil rising

Outlook 09/12: U.S. stock futures under pressure from rising oil prices weighed on sentiment raising fears about sticky inflation and slowing global economic activity. U.S. crude prices touched the highest since November of last year. Much attention is focused on key inflation data due later in the week, with the consumer price index expected Wednesday and the producer price index slated for Thursday. Both data points come ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week. Current market pricing implies a 93% probability that the central bank will keep interest rates steady at the meeting.

/ESZ23 (Dec 2023): YVAH 4541 YPOC 4539 YVAL 4527 GAP 4539

/ES Plan: Last session market closed bullish (PBT 4569), but overnight looks more bearish, moving below previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above HVE 4522 with bullish internals, buy towards YVAL 4527 YPOC-GAP 4539 and YVAH 4541.

B) If market moves below HVE 4522 with bearish internals, sell towards HVE 4522 YLOD-HVE 4509 and HVE 4500.

Note: Market opens below value and if it begins to trade within value, Value Area Rule VAR comes into play. 

REMINDER: We're in rollover week. I'm quoting /ESZ23 volume cos is more relevant than September contract. Pace of the Roll 60%. Usually rollover days show big divergences between Stocks vs. Futures, so try to play these days on defensive mode. Setups that usually work well, may fail completely. 

Market Movers

1:00 PM 10-Year Note Auction 

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