FOMC Day

Outlook 01/31: U.S. stock futures fell Wednesday after a pair of mega cap tech companies posted their quarterly results. Players also wait aside toward the Federal Reserve’s decision on rate policy. In after-hours trading, Alphabet dropped more than 5%, while Microsoft slipped 1.6% after the tech giants posted quarterly earnings. To be sure, both companies managed to beat on both top and bottom lines. The Fed’s rate decision will be front of mind for traders on Wednesday. The fed funds futures market has priced in a nearly 98% probability that the central bank will leave rates unchanged. Policymakers adopting a “later and fewer approach,” in which the Fed starts cutting rates later than what most of the market is expecting. The Fed doesn’t want to repeat the mistakes of the past about being too aggressive with the rate cuts.

/ESH24 (MAR 2024): YVAH 4954 YPOC 4948 YVAL 4946 GAP 4945

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, and overnight continues on that way, moving below previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above ONL 4920 with bullish internals, buy towards HVE 4937 GAP 4945 YVAL 4954 and YVAH 4954.

B) If market moves below ONL 4920 with bearish internals, sell towards HVE 4900 GAP 4893 and HVE-GAP 4872.

NoteFOMC days are two separate sessions. The AM session tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity. Trade setups that work well in the AM, may fail completely in the afternoon, resulting in significant losses. Today is NOT the day to trade aggressively. On these high volatility days, your first trading rule is 'manage your risk'. 

Market Movers

9:45 Chicago PMI
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference

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