Rate cut comedown

Outlook 01/18: U.S. stock futures rise slightly Thursday as the market tried to regain its footing after yet another losing session. Investors are concerned that a buoyant labor market coupled with robust consumer spending, reflected in Wednesday’s retail sales report for December, may mean fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve than many are expecting. Currently, markets are pricing in a roughly 56% chance of a quarter percentage point rate cut in March. The fact that the Fed is not talking about raising rates is a good thing, but the fact that the market’s pricing six rate cuts is a problem.

/ESH24 (MAR 2024): YVAH 4774 YPOC 4765 YVAL 4759 GAP 4768.75

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, but overnight looks more bullish, moving above previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above HVE 4792 with bullish internals, buy towards GAP 4799 HVEs 4812-4824 ATH 4841 and PBT 4850.

B) If market moves below HVE 4792 with bearish internals, sell towards YVAH 4774 ONL 4763 YVAL 4759 and GAP 4737 .

Note: Overnight inventory is 95% bullish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential trend day. Market opens above value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play.

Market Movers

10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:05 PM Fed's Bostic Speech
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet 

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