CPI data

Outlook 04/10: U.S. stock futures tanked after March inflation data came in hotter than expected, likely pushing off interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that investors have been expecting. The CPI rose 0.4% for the month and 3.5% year-over-year. Economists had forecasted an increase of 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year on year. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated 0.4% from the previous month while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared to estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. CPI in April increased at a 3.2% annual pace. Inflation returns with today’s CPI report. The forecasts for Fed easing this year will be reassessed even lower.

/ESM24 (JUN 2024): YVAH 5260 YPOC 5235 YVAL 5222 GAP 5267

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish, but overnight, after CPI, looks bearish, moving below yesterday value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above HVE 5195 with bullish internals, buy towards YLOD 5208 YVAL 5222 YVAH 5260 and GAP 5267.

B) If market moves below YHOD 5195 with bearish internals, sell towards HVEs 5180-5155 PBT 5136 and HVEs 5125-5060.

Note: Overnight inventory is strong bearish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential bearish trend day. Market opens below value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play.

Market Movers

10:00 Wholesale Inventories
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:45 PM Fed's Goolsbee Speech
1:00 PM 10-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM Treasury Statement 


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