Switch Day

 Outlook 06/18: U.S. stock futures stall at records after weak retail sales data. Retail sales rose 0.1% in May, versus the 0.2% growth forecasted by economists. Sales rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis. Treasury yields fell following the retail sales report, cushioning stock prices a bit with investors hoping for some economic slowing to spur the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Investors are basically feeling the trend is my friend until it ends. They don’t really see anything at this point that is going to cause this upward move to end. Several Federal Reserve officials including Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin are expected to speak at events across the country throughout the day.

/ESU24 (SEP 2024): YVAH 5561 YPOC 5555 YVAL 5504 GAP 5545.25

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 5620), but overnight looks balanced, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above YPOC 5555 with bullish internals, buy towards YHOD-YVAH-ATH-RTH 5561 and PBT 5620.

B) If market moves below YPOC 5555 with bearish internals, sell towards GAP 5545 YVAL 5504 and YLOD-HVE 5490.

Note: We're into rollover and usually rollover days show big divergences between Stocks vs. Futures, so setups that usually work well, may fail completely. I'm quoting /ESU24 due to September contract volume is greater than June contract. Today is the rollover 'Switch day', one of the most challenging days for traders. Be selective on entries, less is more.

Market Movers

10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 Fed's Barkin Speech
11:40 Fed's Collins Speech
1:00 PM Fed’s Logan Speech
1:00 PM 20-Year Bond Auction
1:00 PM Fed’s Musalem Speech
2:00 PM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech

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