Outlook 06/14: U.S. stock futures fell on Friday, following a fresh record close for the SP500. The soft landing is still intact, but there’s starting to be jitters about if the Fed is staying restrictive for too long. Wholesale inflation unexpectedly ticked down by 0.2% last month, while economists expected the gauge to increase by 0.1%. That follows a consumer price index reading that was flat on a monthly basis in May. Investors are also looking ahead to the release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index preliminary June reading.
/ESM24 (JUN 2024): YVAH 5443 YPOC 5436 YVAL 5423 GAP 5436.50
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 5465), but overnight looks bearish (PBT 4385), moving below previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:
A) If market moves above YLOD 5408 with bullish internals, buy towards YVAL 5423 GAP 5436 YVAH-ONH 5443 YHOD 5453 and PBT 5465.
B) If market moves below YLOD 5408 with bearish internals, sell towards ONL 5397 CPI SoC 5395 GAP-PBT 5385 and HVE 5367.
Note: FOMC day always offer an overreaction, Yesterday was the real reaction to FOMC news, and Today is when we have confirmation of the next trend. Market opens below value and if it begins to trade within value,
VAR comes into play. It's Friday and traders who have made losses that week will likely take large risks to try and end the week with a profit. Try to be calm and focus on the market rather than thinking about your account.
Rollover begins. Pace of the Roll is around 50%. I'm still quoting /ESM24 (Jun 2024) until /ESU24 (Sep 2024) volume is higher at the open than June volume. Usually rollover days show big divergences between Stocks vs. Futures. Setups that usually work well, may fail completely.
Market Movers
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
2:00 PM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech
7:00 PM Fed’s Cook Speech
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