Outlook 07/31: Stock futures tick higher Wednesday as investors parsed the latest earnings reports and readied for the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision. The Fed is slated to wrap its two-day policy meeting Wednesday. The central bank is expected to keep rates steady at the meeting, but the focus will be on chair Jerome Powell and whether he offers any signs that cuts may be on the near horizon. Jobs data released Wednesday hinted at a slowing economy and supported central bankers’ efforts to reduce inflation. Private job growth slowed further in July as the pace of wage gains dropped to a three-year low, according to the latest ADP report.
ESU24 (SEP2024): YVAH 5491 YPOC 5473 YVAL 5444 GAP 5444
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, but overnight session looks bullish (PBT 5597), moving above previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:
A) If market moves above HVE 5540 with bullish internals, buy towards HVE 5588 GAP-PBT 5597 and HVEs 5609-5627.
B) If market moves below HVE 5540 with bearish internals, sell towards HVE 5510 YVAH-HVE 5491 and YVAL-GAP 5444.
FOMC days are two separate sessions. The AM session tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity. Trade setups that work well in the AM, may fail completely in the afternoon, resulting in significant losses. Today is NOT the day to trade aggressively. On these high volatility days, your first trading rule is 'manage your risk', sizing small with less /ES emini contracts or using /MES micro futures.
Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bullish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential bullish trend day. Market opens above value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play.
Market Movers
09:45 AM Chicago PMI
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
02:00 PM FOMC Announcement
02:30 PM Fed Chair Press Conference
03:00 PM Farm Prices
Follow Twitter updates using
TweetDeck old version.
Questions via private twitter direct message (RTH)
