Jobs Report

Outlook 07/04: Stock futures are slightly higher as investors digested Friday’s closely watched jobs report. Labor data released Friday morning reflected a 206,000 increase in nonfarm payroll adds in June and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, which rose to 4.1%. Economists expected the jobless rate to remain steady at 4%. June’s job report data should push central bankers to cut interest rates this fall, according to Macro Research. “This is not a close call, the unemployment rate is climbing & payroll growth is slowing. Conditions in the labor market are cooling off. The trade-offs for the Fed have shifted. If they don’t cut this month, they ought to make a strong signal a cut is coming in September.”

/ESU24 (SEP2024): YVAH 5582 YPOC 5569 YVAL 5561 GAP 5589

/ES Plan: Last session market closed bullish, but overnight reopening looks slight bearish, still moving above previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market remains above HVE 5589 with bullish internals, buy towards ATH-RTH 5595 ATH-ONH 5605 and PBT 5620.

B) If market moves below HVE 5589 with bearish internals, sell towards YVAH 5582 YPOC 5569 and YVAL 5561.

Note: New record high has been printed overnight, so it's still pending to be revisited at regular trading hours. Market opens above value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play. It's Friday and traders who have made losses that week will likely take large risks to try and end the week with a profit. Try to be calm and focus on the market rather than thinking about your account.

Market Movers

01:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

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