Jackson Hole

Outlook 08/23: Stock futures rise Friday as traders await an all-important policy speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for any guidance on future rate cuts. The Fed chairman, set to speak at 10am ET from the central bank’s annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is expected to signal it’s appropriate for central bank to begin lowering interest rates soon, with limited clues about the magnitude and frequency of the reductions. Markets are unanimous in betting on a rate cut at the Sept. meeting, but there’s less consensus over how big that decrease will be. Minutes from the July session showed a “vast majority” of members in favor of a September cut. Stocks were pressured on Thursday by a surge in Treasury yields in the run-up to the Jackson Hole speech.

ESU24 (SEP2024): YVAH 5634 YPOC 5598 YVAL 5583 GAP 5598

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish (PBT 5541), but overnight looks bullish, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above YVAH 5634 with bullish internals, buy towards HVE-YHOD 5665 PBT 5668 HVE 5708 GAP 5712 and ATH 5721.

B) If market moves below YVAH 5634 with bearish internals, sell towards YPOC-GAP-ONL 5598 YVAL-YLOD 5583 and HVE-PBT 5541.

Note: Market opens inside value. Don't be 'too anxious'. Let the market lead. Bad trades occur when you try to force things to happen. This AM could be a high volatility session, so your first trading rule is 'manage your risk'. I recommend to stay aside or trade small size using micro futures until the market recovers a 'normal' regime.

Market Movers

Jackson Hole Symposium
10:00 AM New Home Sales
10:00 AM Jerome Powell Speech
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count 

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