FOMC begins

Outlook 09/17: Stock futures climb higher Tuesday following better-than-expected retail sales data ahead of the start of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. The latest retail sales data indicated solid consumer health ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting set to begin on Tuesday. Retail sales rose 0.1% in August versus economists’ estimates for a 0.2% decline. Market is on standby for the Fed’s long-anticipated rate cut, a move that could help boost earnings growth for companies following a backdrop of steep borrowing costs and high inflation. The Fed first embarked on its aggressive hiking campaign in March 2022. While investors expect a cut Wednesday, the market is divided on the size of the potential reduction. Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance that the central bank eases rates by 50bps. 

ESZ24 (DEC2024): YVAH 5700 YPOC 5696 YVAL 5682 GAP 5696

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 5723), and overnight continues on that way, moving above previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above HVE 5723 with bullish internals, buy towards ONH 5726 and PBTs 5740-5750 magnets.

B) If market moves below HVE 5723 with bearish internals, sell towards YVAH 5700 YPOC-GAP 5696 HVE 5667 YLOD 5658 and GAP 5654 magnet.

Reminder: I'm quoting December contract. We're into rollover and usually on rollover days there is volume splitting, so setups that usually work well can completely fail. On these days, less is more.

Market Movers

FOMC Meeting begins
09:15 AM Industrial Production
10:00 AM Business Inventories
10:00 AM Housing Market Index
10:00 AM Fed’s Logan Speech
01:00 PM $13B, 20-Year Bond Auction
02:00 PM Treasury Buyback Results

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