Mideast Fears

Outlook 10/02: Stock futures tick lower as traders braced for more losses to start October amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The major averages are coming off a losing session as rising tensions in the Middle East dented risk appetite and investor enthusiasm for the new trading period. The major worry now is should this conflict spiral into a larger scale war in the entire region, which of course could be a major October surprise. ADP data released Wednesday showed better-than-expected private payroll growth in September. That comes ahead of Friday’s closely followed nonfarm payroll report, which could play a major role in the market’s direction and the Federal Reserve’s next rate move as its cutting cycle begins.

ESZ24 (DEC2024): YVAH 5773 YPOC 5760 YVAL 5741 GAP 5761

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish (PBT 5700), but overnight looks balanced, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market remains above YVAL 5741 with bullish internals, buy towards GAP 5761 YVAH 5773 HVE 5798 and ATH-ETH 5830 magnet. 

B) If market moves below YVAL 5741 with bearish internals, sell towards YLOD 5733 HVEs 5722-5710 PBT 5700 and GAP 5691 magnet.

Note: Yesterday's inventory was 100% bearish. The expected action for Today's opening is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential bearish trend day. 

Market Movers

10:05 AM Fed's Musalem Speech
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement
11:00 AM Fed's Bowman Speech
12:15 PM Fed's Barkin Speech
02:00 PM Treasury Buyback Results 

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