Yields rising

 Outlook 10/22: Stock futures fall for a second day as a back-up in interest rates overshadowed a solid start to earnings reporting season. Uncertainty about the future of Federal Reserve rate cuts has weighed on markets so far this week with the 10-year Treasury yield topping 4.20% early Tuesday, the highest since late July. The 2-year yield climbed to 4.04% early Tuesday. Rates have actually increased since the Fed cut by a half point a month ago. Part of that move can be attributed to improving economic data, but some of that increase is due to pessimism the Fed won’t be as aggressive with rate cuts moving forward. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari hinted Monday the central bank may take a more modest approach from here.

ESZ24 (DEC2024): YVAH 5900 YPOC 5888 YVAL 5878 GAP 5897.75

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, but overnight looks bearish (PBT 5836), moving below previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above HVE 5870 with bullish internals, buy towards YVAL 5878 and GAP-YVAH-ONH 5900 magnet.

B) If market moves below HVE 5870 with bearish internals, sell towards ONL 5861 HVE 5850 and PBT 5836 magnet.

Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bearish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential bearish trend day. Market opens below value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play.

Market Movers

10:00 AM Fed's Harker Speech
10:00 AM Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)
01:00 PM Money Supply

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