FOMC week

Outlook 12/16: Stock futures rise slightly as market gets ready for Fed meeting this week. Federal Reserve policymaking will be in the spotlight this week, with the U.S. central bank wrapping up its final meeting of the year. The FOMC already cut rates twice since it made a highly anticipated U-turn in September, and nearly everyone is expecting one final cut at the gathering on Wednesday. That would bring the Fed's benchmark rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, or a full percentage point below the four-decade high reached in July 2023, though things have also grown more complicated when sizing up the current monetary policy equation. 

ESZ24 (DEC2024): YVAH 6064 YPOC 6056 YVAL 6041 GAP 6050

/ES Plan: Last session market closed bearish, but overnight looks more bullish, moving above previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above YVAH 6064 with bullish internals, buy towards GAP 6088 ATH 6111 and PBT 6125 magnet.

B) If market moves below YVAH 6064 with bearish internals, sell towards GAP 6050 YVAL 6041 and GAP 6015 magnet. 

Note: Rollover begins. Pace of the Roll is around 45%. I'm still quoting /ESZ24 (DEC 2024) until /ESH25 (Mar 2025) volume is higher at the open than December volume. Usually rollover days show big divergences between Stocks vs. Futures, so try to play these days on defensive mode. Setups that usually work well, may fail completely. Market opens above value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play.

Market Movers

09:45 AM PMI Composite Flash 

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