Outlook 01/29: Stock futures slide ahead of Fed rate decision. The Fed’s decision is now a focal point for investors, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Fed funds futures data reflect a nearly 100% certainty that the central bank will keep rates steady at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Investors will be paying especially close attention to Powell’s comments, his first press conference in President Donald Trump’s second term. The two have had a contentious relationship dating back to Trump’s first term. The president has already said he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately.”
ESH25 (MAR2025): YVAH 6105 YPOC 6090 YVAL 6062 GAP 6092
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 6156), but overnight looks bearish, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:
A) If market moves above YPOC 6090 with bullish internals, buy towards YVAH-YHOD 6105 and GAP 6129 PBT 6156 magnets.
B) If market moves below YPOC 6090 with bearish internals, sell towards HVE 6070 YVAL 6062 HVE 6134 and YLOD 6024.
Note:
FOMC days are two separate sessions. The AM session tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity. Trade setups that work well in the AM, may fail completely in the afternoon, resulting in significant losses. Today is NOT the day to trade aggressively. On these high volatility days, a lot of money could be made and lost but your first trading rule is 'manage your risk', sizing small with less /ES emini contracts or using /MES micro futures.
Market Movers
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 AM Survey of Business Uncertainty
02:00 PM FOMC Announcement
02:30 PM Chairman Press Conference
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