Month end

Outlook 02/28: Stock futures rise Friday after the latest personal consumption expenditures price index came in-line with expectations. Meanwhile, the major averages were headed toward a losing week and month. The latest PCE reading showed that inflation eased slightly in January. The PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, increased 0.3% for the month and 2.5% on an annual basis. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also rose 0.3% for the month and 2.6% year-over-year. The numbers all came in as expected. The SP500 has declined 2.5% for the week and around 3% in February. The broad market index is on track for its worst week since September 2024 and biggest monthly decline since April 2024.

ESH25 (MAR2025): YVAH 6010 YPOC 5970 YVAL 5934 GAP 5879

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, but overnight, after PCE, still looks bullish (PBT 5920), moving below previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above YLOD-HVE 5875 with bullish internals/volume, buy towards YVAL 5934 YPOC 5970 and YVAH-VAR 6010 magnet.

B) If market moves below YLOD-HVE 5995 with bearish internals/volume, sell towards HVEs 5850-5824-5800 and GAP 5747 magnet.

Note:  It's Friday and traders who have made losses that week will likely take large risks to try and end the week with a profit. Try to be calm and focus on the market rather than thinking about your account. Trade the market, follow the process, don't trade your P&L.

Market Movers

09:45 AM Chicago PMI
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
03:00 PM Farm Prices
10:15 PM Fed's Goolsbee Speech 

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