Tariffs pause

Outlook 02/04: Stock futures inventory looks bearish as investors try to shake off Trump’s initial tariff salvos. The move comes after the U.S. agreed to pause more aggressive levies on Canada and Mexico. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced in a post on social media site X on Monday evening that Trump agreed to halt the implementation of tariffs against Canada for at least 30 days. Earlier on Monday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that duties on Mexico imports to the U.S. would also be halted for a month. On the economic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December is due on Tuesday, as well as durable orders. The main event this week will be Friday’s January nonfarm payrolls report, which will add further clarity to the employment picture.

ESH25 (MAR2025): YVAH 6049 YPOC 6021 YVAL 5973 GAP 6024

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 6106), but overnight looks more bearish, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above HVE 6036 with bullish internals, buy towards YVAH 6049 ONH-HVE 6069 and PBT 6106 magnet. 

B) If market moves below HVE 6036 with bearish internals, sell towards GAP 6024 ONL 5987 YVAL 5973 and YLOD 5936.

Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bearish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential bearish trend day. 

Market Movers

10:00 AM Factory Orders
10:00 AM JOLTS
11:00 AM Fed's Bostic Speech
02:00 PM Fed's Daly Speech
07:30 PM Fed’s Jefferson Speech 

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