Yields on fire

Outlook 05/21: Stock futures fell Wednesday as traders fretted over another move higher in Treasury yields, as investors monitored the progress on a new U.S. budget bill. The 30-year Treasury bond yield moved back above 5% on Wednesday, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield traded over 4.53%. Yields moved above those key levels earlier in the week after Moody’s downgraded U.S. bonds late Friday. The latest moves come as traders look to Washington as Republican leaders work to finalize a budget bill that would lower taxes. However, the measure has faced pressure from GOP members looking for higher deductions on state and local taxes. Investors also worry the measure could worsen the U.S. deficit.

ESM25 (JUN2025): YVAH 5969 YPOC 5960 YVAL 5952 GAP 5952

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, but overnight looks more bearish (PBT 5901), moving below previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above HVE 5917 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards YVAL-GAP 5952 and YVAH 5969 magnets.

B) If market moves below HVE 5917 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards ONL 5905 and HVEs 5895-5875-5852.

Note: Market opens below value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play.

Market Movers

10:30 ET US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories.
11:30 ET Trump greets President of South Africa.
12:15 ET Fed’s Barkin and Fed's Bowman event.
12:45 ET Trump Bilateral President of South Africa.

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