Just one cut

Outlook 08/08: Stock futures poin higher on Friday, as investors digested Trump’s new selection to temporarily fill a vacancy on the Fed’s Board of Governors and assessed an ebbing stream of corporate earnings. Traders were pouring over muddled economic data. Fresh "ominous" signs for the labor market and an uptick in a gauge of inflation expectations were offset partially by healthy second-quarter productivity, analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note. Debate also swirls around the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. While several Fed officials this week have signaled a willingness to cut borrowing costs at the central bank’s next meeting in September, one member,  Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, cautioned that there may only room for just the one reduction this year.

ESU25 (SEP2025): YVAH 6384 YPOC 6367 YVAL 6338 GAP 6374

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, but overnight looks balanced, moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above YVAH 6384 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards ONH 6390 YHOD-RTH 6415 YHOD-ETH 6426 HVE 6433 and PBT 6445 magnet.

B) If market moves below YVAH 6384 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards GAP 6374 magnet YPOC 6367 magnet HVE 6359 and HVE-YVAL-VAR 6338 magnet.

Note: Remember that new record high has been printed overnight, so it's still pending to be revisited at regular hours. It's 'Capital Preservation Friday'. Try to be calm and focus rather than thinking about your P/L account. Fridays are rebalanced days for funds manager to open or close weekly time frames positions, so last half hour set big funds bias.

Market Movers

11:20 Fed's Musalem Speaks
14:00 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
15:30 Trump Meets With Armenian PM

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