Oil/10Y up

Outlook 06/03: Stock futures fell on Wednesday as oil prices and Treasury yields moved higher amid worries the U.S.-Iran conflict could keep lifting inflation. Oil prices rose following the U.S. and Iran launching new strikes. We’ve had nine consecutive up weeks for the SP500, and naturally that does reflect positive momentum. Momentum is positive now, short term, intermediate term, long term, and we saw a series of flag pattern breakouts, or essentially sharp run ups followed by brief consolidation phases that are then resolved higher. These run-ups were really explosive. Unfortunately, that also means they tend to end in dramatic fashion, but we don’t have indications yet, any confirmed sell signals from inventories outflows to suggest that this 'Big Long' is over, but next NFP Friday's close will be key.

ESM26 (Jun2026): YVAH 7632 YPOC 7624 YVAL 7605 GAP 7625

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 7670), but overnight looks bearish, still moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market remains above YVAL 7605 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards GAP 7625 and PBTs 7657-7670 magnets.

B) If market moves below YVAL 7605 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards HVE-YLOD 7576 and HVE 7542.

Note: Market opens inside value. Don't be 'too anxious'. You don’t have to be the first. Bad trades occur when you try to force setups. 

Market Movers

09:45 US S&P Services PMI 
10:00 US ISM Services PMI
10:00 US Factory Orders
10:00 US Sec. Bessent Testifies
10:30 EIA Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 Fed's Beige Book
 
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