Outlook 06/18: Stock futures rose on Thursday, with traders looking to recover after the Federal Reserve indicated the possibility of a rate hike this year. Policymakers’ “dot plot” revealed that nine out of 18 Fed officials now see interest rates increasing in 2026. Complicating the forecast was Warsh’s decision to abstain from submitting a rate forecast. However, the chairman repeatedly emphasized the goal of achieving “price stability” during the press conference, exhibiting a tone seen as rather hawkish.
ESU26 (Sep2026): YVAH 7605 YPOC 7590 YVAL 7537 GAP 7492
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, but overnight turns bullish (PBT 7605), moving within previous value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:
A) If market moves above HVE 7540 with bullish internals/delta, buy towards YPOC 7590 and YVAH-PBT 7605 all magnets.
B) If market moves below HVE 7540 with bearish internals/delta, sell towards ONL 7504 GAP 7492 magnet and YLOD 7472.
Note: Today could see volatile market activity as options on three types of securities are set to expire on the same day, an event known as “triple witching.” More than $8 trillion in notional options exposure is set to expire this Friday. At 9:30 AM ET we'll see ~$4.9tn delta notional of SPX expire, and at 4pm another ~$3.4tn of ETF's & single stocks expire. CBOE 0DTEs flipping positive to negative gamma created relatively unstable intraday conditions featuring several “shake-outs”.
Market Movers
10:00 US Leading Index Change
11:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction
13:00 US 5-Year TIPS Auction
13:00 US Baker Hughes Oil Count
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