Outlook 07/29: Stock futures look balanced ahead of the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate decision and subsequent press conference with Chairman Kevin Warsh. Investors expect that the central bank will remain on hold, but will seek greater clarity on the path forward for monetary policy. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a nearly 64% likelihood that the central bank holds rates steady at the current targe range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Markets became more relaxed about the prospect of a July hike following the weaker June payrolls report and a significant downside miss in the inflation data. But from a tactical perspective, there appears to be more to gain for Chair Warsh from a July hike than from a September hike and it seems unlikely that voting members would oppose the Chair over acting six weeks earlier.
ESU26 (Sep2026): YVAH 7482 YPOC 7467 YVAL 7438 GAP 7467
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 7527), but overnight looks balanced, still moving within value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:
Questions via private twitter direct message (RTH)
