Jackson Hole

Outlook 08/28: Stock futures tick higher on Friday as investors monitored earnings reports and awaited Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s planned speech at the central bank’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. While not tied to a formal policy meeting, investors will be watching for signals about where Warsh believe interest rates could go next. Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 64% likelihood that central bank holds rates steady at its meeting next month. Prior Fed chairs have used the speech as an opportunity to discuss broad frameworks and intentions on where they see policy and interest rates headed, beyond the main focus of the conference. But given his approach so far since taking the reins in May, a time during which Warsh has placed a far greater emphasis on market direction than cues from the Fed, it’s hard to know what to expect.

ESU26 (Sep2026): YVAH 7744 YPOC 7735 YVAL 7720 GAP 7735 IVR 66

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 7767), and overnight continues on that way, moving above value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for current session:

A) If market moves above YVAH 7744 with bullish internal/delta, buy towards ONH 7755 and GAP-PBT 7767 magnet.

B) If market moves below YVAH 7744 with bearish internal/delta, sell towards GAP-YPOC 7735 and YVAL 7720 magnets.

Note: If market opens above value and it begins to trade within value, VAR bearish setup comes in play. It's 'Capital Preservation Friday'. Try to be calm and focus rather than thinking about your P/L account. Fridays and ends of months are rebalanced days for funds managers to open or close their large positions.

Market Movers

10:00 University Michigan Sentiment
10:00 Fed's Warsh at Jackson's Hole
11:00 Trunp Speaks
12:00 Trump Speaks
12:30 Fed's Goolsbee Speaks
13:00 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count

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