Outlook: Markets received CPI inflation data this morning to confirm whether the Fed is still on track to raise interest rates in December. The data wasn't particularly soft: Core CPI rose an inline 0.2% in October, and retail sales beat with a 0.2% gain. The macro picture, however, remains just the slightest bit shaky, particularly a continuing selloff in commodities. Asia was lower by about 1% overnight, and Europe is down. U.S. stock index futures are down roughly 0.4% across the board.
/ES Value: YVAH 2578 YPOC 2577 YVAL 2572
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 2589). Overnight inventory is bearish (PBT 2558), moving below yesterday's value, so we've 2 options:
A) If market remains below YVAL 2572 with internals falling, try to be a seller leaning on 2572 and edge 2570 towards ONL 2562 GAP 2561 and PBT 2558. Failure to take out edge 2570 early is signal of weakness.
B) If market starts to move above YVAL 2572 with internals rising, try to be a buyer leaning on 2572-2571 towards YPOC 2577 and GAP-YVAH 2578. Failure to breakdown ONL 2562 early is signal of a strength.
Tips: Stats are very helpful in day trading. Appearances deceive us. If you work on intraday stats, you'll find that if you divided into 5 sessions (ET) Initial Balance (0930 – 1030), Europe Close (1030 – 1130), Midday (1130-1400), Afternoon (1400 – 1500) and Closing Hour (1500-1600), the best time to trade are the Initial Balance, the Euro Close and the Closing Hour. Avoid the Midday and the Afternoon sessions.
Today's Economic Calendar
10:00 AM Business Inventories
10:00 AM Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
04:00 PM Treasury International Capital
04:00 PM Fed's Rosengren speech
Link for Updates (Check it during RTH session)
Disclaimer: All information on this outlook is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice.
Questions? Just ask via email or twitter direct message.
