Outlook 03/19: Stock index futures wavered between gains and losses overnight, while crude posted a big rebound as WTI futures soared 13% to $23.53/bbl. Jobless claims rose to 281,000 last week, reflecting only the first indications of the impact the coronavirus will have on the U.S. employment picture. That number reflected a significant rise from last week’s 211,000, which was unrevised from the initial estimate. Companies are just starting to announce coronavirus-related layoffs, so the real damage probably won’t start showing through until next week’s count, which will entail the period through this Saturday.
/ESM20 Value: YVAH 2430 YPOC 2367 YVAL 2326 GAP 2400
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed balanced, and overnight continues on that way, so these're the options for today:
A) If market remains below LIS HVE 2354 with bearish internals, sell towards HVE 2306-2374 ONL 2375 and HVE 2242.
B) If market moves above LIS 2354 with bullish internals, buy towards GAP 2400 HVEs 2416-2445 ONH 2460 and GAP 2483.
Note: On these high volatility days (VIX>70), your first trading rule is 'manage your risk'. Regardless of how much more money you could have made, you do realize that you just can not manage risk on this enviroment. Risk is just too great (>20p) so I recommend to stay aside.
Market Movers
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
04:30 PM Money Supply
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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