Outlook 04/01: Stock futures pointed to a drop of more than 90 points at Wednesday's open on the first day of April and the second quarter on Wall Street. White House officials are projecting 100,000 to 240,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19, with fatalities peaking over the next two weeks. Private companies shed 27,000 employees for the period through March 12, according to ADP and Moody’s Analytics. Actual losses for the month were much worse as indicated by jobless claims numbering in the millions. On Thursday, the government's look at weekly jobless claims is expected to show a second week of over 3 million people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time. On Friday, the government releases its monthly employment report for March.
/ESM20 Value: YVAH 2609 YPOC 2592 YVAL 2561 GAP 2560.25
/ES Plan: Last session market closed balanced, but overnight looks more bearish, so these're the options for today:
A) If market remains below LIS HVE 2480 with bearish internals, sell towards ONL 2467.25 and HVEs 2454-2416-2390.
B) If market moves above LIS HVE 2480 with bullish internals, buy towards HVE 2508-2539 GAP 2560.25 and ONH 2562.25.
Note: On these high volatility days (VIX>50), your first trading rule is 'manage your risk'. Regardless of how much more money you could have made, you do realize that you just can not manage risk on this enviroment. Risk is just too great (>20p) so I recommend to stay aside.
Market Movers
09:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
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