Outlook 06/30: U.S. stock futures drifted overnight, though equities are still set to end the second quarter having erased most of the losses accrued in the first three months of the year. After testifying before the Senate last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are in the hot seat again today as they appear before the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. Testimony will cover the coronavirus response detailed in the CARES Act, under which the Fed set up several new lending facilities to bolster the economy. Yesterday, Powell noted that the economic recovery had begun sooner than expected, but the path forward is "extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus."
/ESU20 Value: YVAH 3037 YPOC 3032 YVAL 3008 GAP 3047.25
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 3080), but overnight looks more balanced, moving above yesterday's value, so these are the initial balance options for today's opening:
A) If market remains above LIS YVAH 3037 with bullish internals, buy towards GAP 3047.25 ONH 3059.25 HVE 3062 and PBT 3080.
B) If market moves below LIS YVAH 3037 with bearish internals, sell towards ONL 3030.25 HVE 3025 YVAL 3008 and HVE 2995.
Note: When the market opens above the value area and remains above the value area high on the subsequent tests, it is a clearly bullish signal. But when a market opens above the value area but then fails to go through the overnight high and begins to trade back into value with volume at lows increasing, it is a signal of reversal. There is a strong tendency to rotate all the way through the value area.
Market Movers
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Consumer Confidence
11:00 Fed's Williams speech
11:05 Fed's Brainard speech
12:30 PM Powell Testimony
2:00 PM Fed's Bostic speech
2:00 PM Fed's Kashkari speech
3:00 PM Farm Prices
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