Outlook 11/03: U.S. stock futures rose after a soft October jobs report drove bond yields lower. The October jobs report that came out Friday showed the U.S. economy added 150,000 jobs. That was lower than the increase of 170,000 payrolls expected, and below September’s blowout of 297,000 jobs added. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, compared to expectations that it would hold steady at 3.8%. Bond yields, which have weighed on the stock market the last three months, tumbled Friday in the wake of the worse-than-expected payrolls figures and lighter average hourly earnings increase. The 10-year yield lost more than 9 basis points to 4.57%, down from the 5% high it hit last month.
/ESZ23 (Dec 2023): YVAH 4339 YPOC 4334 YVAL 4304 GAP 4333.50
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish (PBT 4400), and overnight continues on that way, moving above previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:
A) If market moves above HVE 4348 with bullish internals, buy towards HVEs 4364-85 GAP 4397 and PBT-HVE 4400-06.
B) If market moves below HVE 4348 with bearish internals, sell towards YHOD-YVAH 4339 GAP 4327 and YVAL 4304.
Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bullish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see that would be an indication of potential trend day. Market opens above value and it begins to trade within value, Value Area Rule (VAR) comes into play. It's Friday and traders who have made losses that week will likely take large risks to try and end the week with a profit. Try to be calm and focus on the market rather than thinking about your account.
FOMC day always offer an overreaction, Yesterday was the real reaction to FOMC news, and Today is when we have confirmation of next trend.
Market Movers
9:45 PMI Composite Final
10:00 ISM Service Index
12:45 PM Fed’s Kashkari Speech
1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
3:30 PM Fed’s Barr Speech
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