Outlook 12/13: U.S. stock futures tick higher Wednesday as investors await the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. The central bank is widely anticipated to hold the benchmark overnight borrowing rate steady in the 5.25% to 5.5% range, but investors will also parse through Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary for clues into how soon rate cuts can be expected. Fresh inflation data on Wednesday kept futures trading steady. The producer price index was unchanged in November after decreasing 0.4% in October. Economists forecast a rise of 0.1%.
/ESH24 (MAR 2024): YVAH 4689 YPOC 4680 YVAL 4667 GAP 4700
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish, but overnight looks balanced, moving above previous value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:
A) If market remains above YHOD 4701 with bullish internals, buy towards ONH 4709 and HVEs 4724-4746.
B) If market moves below YHOD 4701 with bearish internals, sell towards YVAH 4689 and HVE-YVAL 4667
Reminder:
FOMC days are two separate sessions. The AM session tends to involve a tightening price range and lower activity. Trade setups that work well in the AM, may fail completely in the afternoon, resulting in significant losses. Today is NOT the day to trade aggressively. On these high volatility days, your first trading rule is 'manage your risk'.
Note: Overnight inventory was 100% bullish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential trend day. Market opens above value and if it begins to trade within value with volume increasing, 'Value Area Rule (VAR)' comes into play.
Market Movers
10:00 Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference
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