CPI data

Outlook 02/13: U.S. stock futures slid sharply after hotter-than-expected inflation data for January spiked Treasury yields and raised doubts that the Federal Reserve would be able to cut rates several times this year, a key part of the bull case for the equity market. The consumer price index rose 0.3% in January from December. CPI was up 3.1% on an annual basis. Economists expected CPI to have increased by 0.2% month over month in January and 2.9% from a year earlier. Fed Swaps assign lower odds to May and June rate cuts. Traders of short-term US interest-rate futures bet the Fed will not cut rates until June after strong inflation data.

/ESH24 (MAR 2024): YVAH 5052 YPOC 5044 YVAL 5032 GAP 5034

/ES Plan: Last session market closed bearish, and overnight continues on that way, moving below value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above ONL 4967 with bullish internals, buy towards HVE 5000 and YVAL-GAP 5032-34.

B) If market moves below ONL 4967 with bearish internals, sell towards HVE 4937 GAP 4872 and HVE 4844.

Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bearish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential trend day. Market opens below value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play.

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