Bounce back

Outlook 02/14: U.S. stock futures rise after the biggest decline since March 2023. A hotter-than-anticipated inflation reading incited the sell-off as traders fretted that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as early as they had hoped. The consumer price index gained 0.3% in January on a monthly basis and rose 3.1% year over year. Economists were forecasting a 0.2% month-over-month increase and 2.9% from the prior year.  January’s CPI report likely pushes the likelihood of a Fed rate cut to the second half of 2024 versus investors initial expectations of rate cuts as early as March.

/ESH24 (MAR 2024): YVAH 4988 YPOC 4971 YVAL 4957 GAP 4071

/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bearish, but overnight looks more bullish, moving above value, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:

A) If market moves above YVAH 4988 with bullish internals, buy towards HVE 5000 GAP 5034 YHOD 5040 and HVE 5049.

B) If market moves below YVAH 4988 with bearish internals, sell towards YPOC-GAP 4971 YVAL 4957 and YLOD-HVE 4937.

Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bullish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential trend day. Market opens above value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play.

Market Movers

10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
4:00 PM Fed’s Barr Speech 

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