Outlook 03/21: U.S. stock futures tick higher Thursday morning after the three major averages closed at new records and the Federal Reserve concluded its latest policy meeting. Fed reiterated expectations for three cuts to interest rates this year. The central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged at its two-day March policy meeting, which concluded Wednesday. The sum total of this ‘no news is good news’ press conference is that markets continue to have a green light to run higher. As of Thursday morning, traders are pricing in a nearly 70% chance that the Fed begins cutting rates in June.
/ESM24 (JUN 2024): YVAH 5275 YPOC 5240 YVAL 5233 GAP 5312.25
/ES Plan: Yesterday market closed bullish, and overnight continues on that way, moving above value/range, so these're the opening and initial balance options for today:
A) If market remains above YHOD 5298 with bullish internals, buy towards ON-ATH 5316 and ON-PBT 5326.
B) If market moves below YHOD 5298 with bearish internals, sell towards GAP 5312.25 and YPOC-FOMC Soc 5240.
Note: Overnight inventory is 100% bullish. The expected action is a counter-auction; failure to see the counter-auction would be an indication of potential trend day. Market opens above value and if it begins to trade within value, VAR comes into play. FOMC day always offer an overreaction, Today is the real reaction to yesterday news, and Tomorrow is when we have confirmation of the next trend.
Market Movers
9:45 PMI Composite Flash
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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